A Retrospection of Sorts

Two pointless anecdotes.

Long ago, a dear friend once asked me what makes a good love story. I replied that it requires two lovers and a villain – though the villain can be circumstances rather than a person. My friend astutely added that 'viewers' are also essential. So, a good love story consists of two lovers, a villain, and an audience. However, I silently pondered whether these elements guarantee a love story's quality, or merely its fame. Perhaps a famous love story isn't necessarily a good one. And vice-versa not all good stories are world famous. I kept my thoughts to myself, as back then (and perhaps even now) nuances of such philosophical musing is beyond my capacity and eligibility.

Not long ago, I embarked on a ridiculous mission: To turn 10,000 into 1 million as quickly as possible. I dove into the world of extreme low-cap stocks (penny stocks) and started investing. Luck was on my side, and I made some savvy selections. My strategy was to inspect the trading of stock on Monday to check its integrity and then buy on Tuesday and sell on Friday (the so-called T+2 mechanism). More often than not, I'd score a +20% gain by Friday (hitting the upper circuit limit). However, within a month, I noticed a peculiar trend. Stocks I'd bought on Tuesday would suddenly experience exponential volume surges – from 6x to 10x increases in trading volume. Please keep in mind that these stocks had an average volume of less than 10,000. These anomalies made me realize that the real challenge wasn't only predicting which low-cap stock would spike on Friday, but also understanding the entropy surrounding that prediction. Just as a lean and agile person can navigate congested streets swiftly on foot, but not while burdened with a heavy load; I learned invisibility, is as equally important as precise predictive navigation. Visibility, more than what is required, not always a nice thing. It was sad to see that one of my schemes didn't materialize (again). But I do get a chuckle whenever I recall it. And the lesson was priceless. 

UTHR: Notwithstanding its recent announcement of successful drug (late-stage) study meeting its goal (and its well timed and subsequent 50% jump where it reached $450 from $300, and then trickled down to $390 at the same session), I still feel pessimistic about it (though I admit I've done zilch research on this since April and it is just my gut feeling).

NVO: A case in self-stagnation. I recall it hitting $80 as predicted (and getting all smug) as it was well on its way to $100 (by August, again, as predicted). But a very public and equally verbal tussle between NVO and HIMS broke out, whose objective, it seems in the hindsight, was to be as publicly visible as possible. I recall even the negative statements about future growth of company by the outgoing CEO back then, were given quite unusual prominence by media. Yes, they fired their CEO in the midst of their tumbling stock price. But even then, I didn't have enough indicators to envision a scenario where it would surpass $125 in the foreseeable future.

AES: If I would've bought it, I would never have even breathed about it. And those who have bought VRT back in the March/May, Omedetou Gozaimasu! Though AES is destined to be a winner but whether it would do so in this year, is difficult to say (read: no). Back in May, I've suggested power companies might gain and it seems they have, albeit it is not on the scale to write home about. Yes, the company has significant debt, but I was under the impression that metric such as profitability, debt and likewise doesn't matter as they once used to. As of today, it does neither have volumetric integrity nor its selection any entropy. Still it is approximately +20% up from $10 (May, 2025) at the time of writing (closed at $12.73 on 09/09/2025). 

The interplay between causality, its consequences, perceived and acknowledged visibility these consequences, is ridiculously complex. So much so, that even Nietzsche said: There are no facts, only interpretations. Things such as these, as enunciated previously, are beyond my capacity and eligibility. I would be very lucky to even gauge the authenticity of quantity of an audience, let alone the veracity of a love story.

Disclosure: The author declares no financial interest or affiliation with any of the companies mentioned. No positions or holdings are maintained in any of the referenced securities.