Failing Failsafes
Equities As Predicted on 27th July, 2025 (with added notes on 16th September, 2025) PDF A Note On Gold (10th September, 2025) PDF Last July, there was a competition to predict the future. Owing to my inherent academic incompetence, there was virtually no chance that I could gain any foothold in such an event. Nevertheless, for the sake of observing the effects of informational entropy (and the faint possibility of finding like-minded individuals) I participated. I used my custom-built engine (designed for low/mid-cap equities) to compute future paths for a few stocks, along with several general economic parameters. Using such an engine to predict macroeconomic metrics is, admittedly, absurd. But how else does one play a game one is certain to lose, regardless of the move? And this inference is not without basis: From the outset, it was quite clear that a very specific confirmation of certain theories was being sought; theories I neither possess nor have any conf...